African Development: Making Sense of the Issues and Actors
8 March 2007, 12:00 PM EST
On March 8, 2007 senior fellow Todd Moss answered questions about development in Africa and about his recently published book, African Development: Making Sense of the Issues and Actors. The book landing page includes online video of Todd telling why he wrote this book.
Read more about Todd Moss
Transcript
Jonathan Fishbein:
Todd –
I attended your talk yesterday and purchased your book with great enthusiasm.
I am a physician who has worked in HIV/AIDS research and I have recently entered the international development/global health arena. So I am a novice as far as African development is concerned. Your book, which I am plowing through, is absolutely essential to anyone going into this field. I have come to realize that many who are in the field need a primer like this to get a full understanding of the people, organizations, history, and politics at play when African development is concerned. I applaud you on your book!
One of the things you said yesterday particularly struck me. You said that much of the data about Africa is bad quality and mostly the product of educated guesses. I am wondering whether you feel that much of the data regarding AIDS prevalence and deaths are a product of these “guesses”. I have long suspected so based upon my experience. Not that there isn’t an epidemic and people are dying and the problem must be addressed – it is just that there is so much to motivate African nations to paint a grimmer picture within there own borders. Many people who are counted as having died of AIDS have never been tested and they are dying of diseases that have ravaged Africa for a long time – TB, malnutrition, etc. What are your thoughts on this?
I attended your talk yesterday and purchased your book with great enthusiasm.
I am a physician who has worked in HIV/AIDS research and I have recently entered the international development/global health arena. So I am a novice as far as African development is concerned. Your book, which I am plowing through, is absolutely essential to anyone going into this field. I have come to realize that many who are in the field need a primer like this to get a full understanding of the people, organizations, history, and politics at play when African development is concerned. I applaud you on your book!
One of the things you said yesterday particularly struck me. You said that much of the data about Africa is bad quality and mostly the product of educated guesses. I am wondering whether you feel that much of the data regarding AIDS prevalence and deaths are a product of these “guesses”. I have long suspected so based upon my experience. Not that there isn’t an epidemic and people are dying and the problem must be addressed – it is just that there is so much to motivate African nations to paint a grimmer picture within there own borders. Many people who are counted as having died of AIDS have never been tested and they are dying of diseases that have ravaged Africa for a long time – TB, malnutrition, etc. What are your thoughts on this?
Todd Moss:
Thanks very much, Jonathan. I'm glad you are finding my book useful - this is exactly the kind of audience I was hoping to reach. I hope you'll share it with colleagues and help spread the word.
The question of data always seems to come up and, while I think it's an easy thing for people to sometimes hide behind ("we don't know because the data is so bad"), there are real concerns. In Chapter 10, I (and Markus Goldstein who helped write that chapter) talk about the issue of HIV/AIDS data. There was a long-standing problem in that people didn't want to be tested, so you had a real sample bias and most of the estimates came from pre-natal clinics. This is only so good as long as child-bearing age women are representative of the rest of the poulation. Just last year we have seen some major revisions to prevalence rates from UNAIDS, further highlighting how inexact a science it is. But, I think your general conclusion is correct - we should keep trying to get better numbers but shouldn't let these stand in the way of aggressively attacking the pandemic.
The question of data always seems to come up and, while I think it's an easy thing for people to sometimes hide behind ("we don't know because the data is so bad"), there are real concerns. In Chapter 10, I (and Markus Goldstein who helped write that chapter) talk about the issue of HIV/AIDS data. There was a long-standing problem in that people didn't want to be tested, so you had a real sample bias and most of the estimates came from pre-natal clinics. This is only so good as long as child-bearing age women are representative of the rest of the poulation. Just last year we have seen some major revisions to prevalence rates from UNAIDS, further highlighting how inexact a science it is. But, I think your general conclusion is correct - we should keep trying to get better numbers but shouldn't let these stand in the way of aggressively attacking the pandemic.
Hannah Moore:
Todd: I understand you were recently in Nigeria for the first time. Did you see any evidence that the Nigerian debt deal you helped to design is having any impact on the country?
Todd Moss:
Last month was an exciting time to be in Nigeria. In addition to the Paris Club deal which erased $30bn, the government is now very close to paying off it's London Club (commercial debt) too. Both of these steps are opening up huge new opportunities for Nigerian companies to access international capital again. The banks in particular seem to be benefitting - most of the larger ones have gotten credit ratings and GTB Bank even issued a Eurobond for several hundred million dollars. The government is also starting to issue a little bit of international paper. While this might become worrying if they over-borrow, it so far seems very reasonable.
The risks are still there - especially if the state governments start to try to borrow too, which could make the federal government liable again. We'll be watching carefully. I think the wobble in international markets last week is probably a good thing to make sure the markets aren't overly exhuberant about a volatile place like Nigeria.
The risks are still there - especially if the state governments start to try to borrow too, which could make the federal government liable again. We'll be watching carefully. I think the wobble in international markets last week is probably a good thing to make sure the markets aren't overly exhuberant about a volatile place like Nigeria.
Katie:
Dear Todd: At the book launch yesterday, you mentioned Botswana as an example of a country that can be used as a model for other developing countries in the region. What are the primary factors that have contributed to Botswana’s economic success? What are the reasons that despite its high GDP, Botswana still faces several development challenges, including one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in the world? Just because it has amassed a certain amount of wealth from the diamond industry, does that mean that this wealth has been equally distributed? Given all of this, what are the main lessons we can take from Botswana?
Todd Moss:
Botswana is really quite an amazing place in many ways. It has great diamond wealth, and seems to have used it wisely - either spending on projects or saving what it cannot spend effeciently. Perhaps most surprising given the 'resource curse' in other countries, it has very low corruption.
How it has managed to do this is still hard to say. It is clear that it has helped to have (a) very good leaders (b) a small and homogenous population, and (c) a tradition of participatory democracy since even before independence. These structural features are hard (or impossible) to replicate in other countries. But I do think the big lessons from Botswana for others is that sound management can reap real benefits. The govt has also not been shy to hire international professionals when they couldn't find locals to do important policy jobs (this would be unthinkable in many countries).
Yes, BW still faces many problems, but it seems to be handling HIV/AIDS as well as could be expected. It is still a very small landlocked country, which makes creating the market size to be competitive very difficult. It still has to find it's non-diamond niches.
How it has managed to do this is still hard to say. It is clear that it has helped to have (a) very good leaders (b) a small and homogenous population, and (c) a tradition of participatory democracy since even before independence. These structural features are hard (or impossible) to replicate in other countries. But I do think the big lessons from Botswana for others is that sound management can reap real benefits. The govt has also not been shy to hire international professionals when they couldn't find locals to do important policy jobs (this would be unthinkable in many countries).
Yes, BW still faces many problems, but it seems to be handling HIV/AIDS as well as could be expected. It is still a very small landlocked country, which makes creating the market size to be competitive very difficult. It still has to find it's non-diamond niches.
Ambassador Hope:
There is an Executive Order in the Oval office ready for the President to sign that will release $55 bn over 4 years for healthcare and orphancare in Africa. How can we mobilize the US media to appreciate that American consumers are dependant on consuming African products everyday?
Todd Moss:
I am not aware of any such order, and that number looks awfully large. I would be surprised if that was right since total US aid to Africa is running about $4 billion per year recently.
Bill Boteler:
Are developed countries going to contribute funding to counteract the negative effects of climate change on African countries' development?
Todd Moss:
That's a good question that I don't think yet has an answer. My colleagues David Wheeler and Bill Cline are working on these issues so I would suggest you watch the CGD website for future work. My one comment would be that I hope the whole climate change issue isn't twisted into just one more excuse to mindlessly push for more African aid - this unfortnately seems to have happened to the trade debate.
Jennifer:
There are many "indigenous" experts engaged in inspiring and important grassroots development activities within Africa. What can be done to provide more visibility, support and weight to their expertise in foreign aid projects?
Todd Moss:
Yes, there are countless local projects doing great things across Africa. The (bland) answer is that foreigners who want to help should try to seek out these hidden gems - but this is often very hard to do in practice. The bigger, and I hope better, answer is that donors can work to help to improve the environment in which such groups work. This means pushing to ensure that groups are allowed to operate freely and interact without interference.
Katie:
Hi Todd. I'm wondering if you addressed the issue of brain drain in your book, and if so, do you see it getting worse or better? What is being done to reverse it? Have any countries been particularly successful?
Todd Moss:
I do talk about brain drain briefly in Chapter 10. Following the work of colleague Michael Clemens, I think the popular notions are mostly wrong here. Migration is perhaps the single greatest thing a person can do to improve their welfare, and the evidence is looking increasingly clear that this has meaningful aggregate effects. Even the worries about doctors and nurses leaving Africa seem to be misplaced: there are something like 4 times as many nurses in Kenya working outside of public health than there are Kenyan nurses in the UK. This suggests that there are other things going on there besides outflow. The 'brain gain' also seems to be very positive - I have seen it firsthand in places like Ghana and Nigeria where professionals are coming back from the US and Europe and starting new busnesses and bringing new skills and networks.
Lastly, I also have some ethical problems with the idea that we should encourage policies to trap people inside their own countries just because they chose to become educated.
Lastly, I also have some ethical problems with the idea that we should encourage policies to trap people inside their own countries just because they chose to become educated.
Joselyn:
Todd: Women's political, social and economic development is a crucial element in reaching African development goals. What policy shifts are occurring to improve gender development in Africa and women's contributions to development generally?
Todd Moss:
Many of the donors have 'mainstreamed' gender into their programs. Sometimes this helps encourage women to participate, sometimes it creates a backlash. I do however think that the greatest changes are occurring as a result of African women themselves, and we are now seeing a huge increase in women's political participation. Most obviously you have Liberia's Ellen Johnson Sirleaf as Africa's first female president (the great job she's been doing is probably going to encourage more women to seek public office and dispel some of the chauvinist myths). There are also powerful women such as Ngozi Okozo-Iweala and Luisa Dias Diogo who have made a huge difference. The numbers of women parliamentarians is also very high in Africa, and growing. I do talk a bit about 'Big Women' in Chapter 3.
Ambassador Hope:
Todd clarification the Executive Order is not for aid, its for a guarentee which is zero cost and low risk to the US taxpayer however, it will release the investment funds from the PRIVATE sector for healthcare and orphancare.
Todd Moss:
Ok, thanks for that. I would like to learn more. We will have a new person starting soon at CGD working on the private sector and health care in Africa, so I'll alert her once she's arrived.
Joshua:
Your response to Jennifer's question is intriguing. Could you expand upon what you mean by, "The bigger, and I hope better, answer is that donors can work to help to improve the environment in which such groups work. This means pushing to ensure that groups are allowed to operate freely and interact without interference."? In particular, how is this a "better" answer than seeking out "hidden gems"?
Todd Moss:
Yes, I could be clearer. Trying to find a particular NGO or other group in Africa doing good things can be a big help, but it is often difficult to (a) find them (b) identify what you can really do to help them, and (c) get involved without changing what they were doing. I'm not saying this cannot be done, only that it's hard than people think and that the transaction costs are very high. But if you are pushing me to give one answer: probably the biggest single help an outside group can give is to help local NGOs network with the outside world.
Karelle Samuda:
Todd:
I attended the book launch yesterday. Congratulations!I have not had the opportunity (as yet)to read your book but I was wondering if you managed to look at the issue of the African Diaspora and how the capital within this community (social, political, financial and intellectual capital) has been used to facilitate development in the continent?
I attended the book launch yesterday. Congratulations!I have not had the opportunity (as yet)to read your book but I was wondering if you managed to look at the issue of the African Diaspora and how the capital within this community (social, political, financial and intellectual capital) has been used to facilitate development in the continent?
Todd Moss:
The diaspora is a huge, still largely untapped, resource for Africa's future. The potential is just absolutely massive. But, I also think that it is a natural process: people left for good reasosn and they will go back when things get better. We're now seeing some of that already in West Africa. I imagine that Zimbabwe's recovery, once it has a better government, will be driven largely by returnees. Ironically, the best thing the OECD countries can do to encourage this process is to let more Africans immigrate to the US and Europe. Africa countries who want to attract back people and cash just have to make it desirable and convenient to do so. I have written elsewhere about how stock markets are one such vehicle to bringing back diaspora wealth. There are many others.
See all CGD publications within our research topic on Africa.